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Market Update-Because We Were.....Inverted

Market Update-Because We Were.....Inverted


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What’s New??- A LOT

FHA- Maximum loan amount is now $314,827
Conventional- Maximum loan amount is now $484,350
New Jumbo Program of the month- We have a 90% loan to value loan program that only calls for 1 year of tax returns, 30 year fixed rate is below 6% with NO MI!!

Financial Markets

We now have what we call a “Yield Curve Inversion” in the bond market, which is a significant occurrence. I know many of you many not speak Nerd-Economics, fortunately I speak a little and can translate for you. Ultimately what we are seeing is short term bond yields becoming higher than long term bond yields. Further translation: Bond investors are buying more short term bonds than long term bonds. Stay with me, I am about to land the plane…The reason this happens is, investors are starting to place bets that the US economy will go into a recession in the next year or so.

It’s ok breathe, the last recession started in 2008 and was the 2nd worst in our nation’s history. Typical recessions are normal and healthy and just part of the economic life cycle.

Back to monitoring the 10 year US Treasury, which is what is most closely related to mortgage rates, you can see that mortgage rates have dropped a bit over the past 30 days, by about .25%. The primary reasons can be attributed to: The China v US trade/tarrif stand off, Brexit uncertainty (remember that, basically the UK breaking away from the European Union that was voted on in the summer of 2016, the rubber is now meeting the road), and Prime Minsiter May was up for a competency vote. Remember that economic uncertainty triggers investors to migrate to safety, and the US Bond market is widely considered the safest harbor to park investments while the storm passes.

Southern Nevada Real Estate Related Data

  • November home sales should come to no surprise to many of us that felt the real estate market winds shift around September, with the number of sales (2,292) down nearly 15% from October and nearly 12% from November of 2017. With just over 7,000 homes listed on the MLS without offers, you could consider there to be a 3-month supply of homes on the market. 

  • predicts home prices to rise another 7.9% in Clark County for 2019, predicting it to be the second-fastest rate in the nation, just behind Grand Rapids, MI. It also predicts the number of sales to rise nearly 1%, which is certainly encouraging considering 2018 is projected to be down over 6% compared to number of resale sales in 2017. 

  • Interesting read on legislation regarding short term rentals. 

Happy Holidays to you, I hope Santa brings you everything you asked for!