Financial Markets- Bonds (Mortgage Rates)

The S&P 500 clawed its way back to its historical high point, and currently sitting slightly over 6,917. At this time last year it was around 5,900, so all in all its nearly a 15% increase.

The bond market, and in particular the 10 year US Treasury, is at around 4.11 as I write this. At this point, after the fed has cut the federal funds rates several months in a row, we may be bottoming out with regards to how low mortgage rates will go. There are still a couple of levers to pull to drive mortgage rates lower but I think at this point whether the customer is looking into refinancing or buying waiting for lower rates to come may be a fruitless effort.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

Fannie Mae is projecting the 30 year fixed rate mortgage to hang in the low six’s until 4th quarter of 2026.

The Mortgage Banker’s Association is less optimistic about mortgage rates, they are projecting mortgage rates to hover closer to mid sixes for most of 2026.

Southern Nevada Real Estate

Home sales for the Las Vegas valley again under-performed in November as compared to the same month the prior year and puts 2025 on pace to see less homes sold since 2009. Depending on how December shakes out, possibly the lowest number of sales since the turn of the century. Yet the median priced SFR went back up. I don’t get it. So, what is in store for the New Year?! Realtor.com, according to the RJ is projecting the number of sales to drop another 2.6% (nearly 1,000 less sales) BUT predicting that values will rise by .6%, or about $3,000.

LVRJ-Will Las Vegas Valley home prices drop in 2026