Financial Markets- Bonds (Mortgage Rates)
The 10 year US Treasury retreated to under 5% this past week, primarily as a result of investors selling stocks and taking a flight to safety, specifically out of AI stocks like Anthropic into US bonds…and mortgage rates as a result reaped the benefits. After the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate nearly kissed 8% it has drifted back down to just below 7.5%, nearly 1.25% higher than this time last year.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Southern Nevada Real Estate
Home sales for Clark County Nevada for the month of September year over year are not much lower than 2025 despite mortgage rates being higher by nearly 1%. With 3 months to go for the year the county appears to be on track for somewhere between 32,000 and 33,000 transactions for the year…For perspective, there were over 50,000 transactions for last year before COVID in 2019. 2026 represents 35% less transactions than in 2019.
Selfishly this can be a bit depressing for all of us in the real estate industry that rely on transactions BUT I do think a small decline in values could be very healthy for the long term health of real estate in Clark County. If the median priced home temporarily dropped to $450,000 by spring of 2027, it would indicate a roughly 5.5% annual appreciation rate since Covid started in January of 2020…in just two years the median priced home rose 35%...so this speculative analysis would bring the median priced home back in line with historical real estate average appreciation rates. I would consider the 35% appreciation from 2020 to 2022 to be fully accounted for and if mortgage rates drop into the mid to low 6’s we could see activity, specifically number of transactions, get back to what Clark County was accustomed to seeing by summer of 2027.
September Home Sales
- Total: 2,565. Year to date is 25,227
- Condos: 267
- Townhomes: 306
- Single Family Residences: 1,992
- Inventory = 9,984…when divided by resale SFR sales of 1,992 we come up with 5 months supply of homes)
- Median Priced Home holding at $470,000
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