Financial Markets- Bonds (Mortgage Rates)

The S&P 500 had another meh month after reaching a peak of nearly 6,900, as I write this it currently sits at 6,618. Despite the two flat months, this index is still up 11% with another month to push higher.

The bond market, and in particular the 10 year US Treasury, which is what mortgage rates are typically tethered to, spiked from 3.9 to 4.16 but has trickled down some. Today as I write this the 10 year US T is below 4.1 for the first time in a month. Primarily because the NY Fed Chair released comments that he is adamantly in favor of another Fed Rate cut in December. Add about 2.3% to the 10 year US Treasury and you will come up with the average 30 year fixed rate, which is around 6.4% today.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed

It would seem that we need the 10 year US Treasury to drift down to around 3.6% to 3.7% or so to see a noticeable uptick in real estate sales. Siiiix- seeeeven….That happened briefly in around September of 2024 and fueled an increase in home sales for several months.

Southern Nevada Real Estate

Home sales for the Las Vegas valley continued to sag in October, with YTD sales down nearly 6% from 2024 and down 7% from 2023. (Although 2023 ended the year with less sales than 2024). Remarkably though the median priced home ticked up from $470,000 to $474,000 despite inventory continuing to climb higher. Mind boggling. Side note, in the past 3 years there were more home sales in October than September.